Bitcoin Bearish Signal: Aged Supply Flows Into Binance

Posted on January 30, 2023
News
By Mark Otto
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On-chain data shows a significant amount of old Bitcoin supply has flowed into Binance today, something that could be bearish for the crypto’s price. Bitcoin Supply 1-6 Months Old Has Been Deposited To Binance As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, this aged supply is likely to be in profits and hence […][...]

On-chain data shows a significant amount of old Bitcoin supply has flowed into Binance today, something that could be bearish for the crypto’s price.

Bitcoin Supply 1-6 Months Old Has Been Deposited To Binance

As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, this aged supply is likely to be in profits and hence the deposits could have been done to sell it. The relevant indicator here is the “Spent Output Age Bands” (SOAB), which measures the total amount of Bitcoin that each age band in the market is moving currently.

The “age bands” here refer to coin groups divided based on the age of the coins belonging to them. For example, the 6m-12m age band includes the total number of coins that have been sitting dormant on the blockchain since at least 6 months and at most 12 months ago. The SOAB metric for this age band would then tell us how many of these coins from this age band are being transferred right now.

A modified version of this indicator is the “exchange inflow SOAB,” which only tracks transactions that are going toward exchanges. Investors usually deposit to these platforms for selling purposes, so large values of this metric can have a bearish impact on the price.

In the context of the current discussion, the 1m-3m and the 3m-6m age bands are the relevant cohorts. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the SOAB data for these two age bands over the past day:

Bitcoin Binance Inflow

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin exchange inflow SOAB has observed large spikes for the 1m-3m and the 3m-6m age bands during the past day. The metric used here is specifically for the crypto exchange Binance, which suggests that a large number of coins falling into these groups have been deposited to this platform.

While supply belonging in the 1m-6m old range isn’t that aged (certainly not when compared to coins older than 1 or 2 years), selling from investors falling in this cohort can still have significant implications on the market.

The BTC price has been between the $15,000-$25,000 range for the time period squeezed between 1 and 6 months ago, which implies that investors who would have bought inside this span are likely to be in profits at the moment.

This may suggest that these investors who have deposited to Binance are trying to strike while the iron is still hot and claim the profits that they have amassed recently. The quant notes that these holders might be planning to sell ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting.